Coooooovid

[robcat2075]

.... I dont have enough knowledge to dispute the UK stats but I do know that anyone who dies of anything within a month of catching covid is recorded as death by covid so that includes all cancer patients, heart attacks, sepsis, dementia - you name it and thats not to mention the good old winter flu which seems to have entirely disapeared as a cause of death. Is that the same in the US?...

In the US your last words have to be "I'm dying of COVID!" for it to count. Otherwise, it's classed as a slip-and-fall or GSW.

But as long as the definitions have been consistent for each country the graphs should give us some idea of trends.

I have no idea if the definitions have been consistent.

[DougHulme]

By the sounds of that I dont think they have been the same, Yours sounds more accurate to me. Ours skews the death rate unecessarily pessimistically. That said no one seems to be taking it that seriously and very few people or places are wearing masks anymore and even self isolation is not happening but Bruce is right the new variant that proved so contagous is also much less severe in its symptoms and is certainly no worse than 'winter flu' but that of course could be completely down to the vaccination programme.

[Matt K]

I have no idea where we're getting our numbers for cases from. WheN I had it, I called up several clinics and they all said not to come in because I tested positive. But there wasn't anywhere I could tell to report my case, so I suspect the numbers are a lot higher... at least in some states. Interestingly, I just checked what the rates are and I know the day I tested positive is incorrect because it says my state had 0 cases and well, I had a case!

[robcat2075]

Everyone is going to die of something... eventually .

But if you die because your terminal cancer has weakened you such that you don't survive a car collision today, we still say the car accident is what killed you.

If COVID is what is tipping some people over the edge, people who might have otherwise continued on for years more even if they were not 100%, it's fair to say COVID is what did them in, I think.

[Matt K]

On the flip side we have a serious obesity and cardiovascular problem in the states. I think it might be more accurate to say that if you are compromised because of something like that and Covid pushes you over the edge that it’s the often decades of lifestyle that “caused” it.

But either way it gets to the idea that attribution of this is incredibly complex and multivariate. And the data for such things is typically horrifically dirty if it’s even available for researchers.

[Bach5G]

Update: soloists came to the last rehearsal and removed their masks to sing. And the choir manager handed out three rapid test kits—dress and two performances— per orchestra member. It was requested we use them.

I am not impressed.

[bassclef]

The music director at the theatre I've been working at for the last 10 years or so is also the MD/choir director at a local church. The choir had been on hiatus for obvious reasons but a few the the choir's more histrionically pious members threw a big enough tantrum to get the choir started again last week instead of this coming fall as was planned. One short rehearsal later, 12 of the 16 people in attendance tested positive, including the MD. Thankfully he's doing okay so far, but this also caused the cancellation of an entire weekend of sold-out theatre shows as well necessitating about 1,500 refunds @ $35 each from an organization which is trying hard to get back on its feet after shutting down for two whole seasons.

[BGuttman]

So ... histrionically pious but not considerate enough to get vaccinated. Sounds about right.

Hope everybody does well.

Here in my nursing home we suddenly had an entire wing test positive. But they all seem to have the symptoms of a mild cold.

[Matt K]

They definitely could have been vaccinated. I didn't get a 4th shot because as far as I know that isn't even approved for someone my age and I got it. It did seem to weaken my symptoms and I didn't pass it on to my family though. Only really maybe today that I stopped coughing. Still a little. Still feeling very tired. So cough took almost a month to get rid of. Yeesh!

[robcat2075]

I got my COVID # 4 and my second shingles vaccine yesterday. Now I can live with zero fear of shingles for the rest of my life and moderately reduced fear of COVID for the next six months.

If you are 50+ go get the shingles vaccine. People who get shingles get seriously messed up.


I went to my first sit-down concert since this all began. A cello ensemble of about 24.

No one on stage was wearing a mask and I was one of maybe only 10 in the audience of perhaps a few hundred wearing a mask.

The ensemble leader had to tell a joke during the proceedings...

A cello player is walking on the beach and he finds a lamp. He picks it up, rubs it and a genie comes out.

The genie says, "I'm kind of busy but I can give you one wish."

"I'd like to have world peace," requests the cello player.

"That's totally impractical, ask for something else!" the genie retorts.

The cello player thinks for a bit, "OK... well... I've been playing cello for 50 years and I'd like to play really in tune."

The genie groans, "What was that first wish again?"

[Bach5G]

Principal trombone (I play 2nd) absent from tonight’s rehearsal. Says he came down with symptoms 5-6 days ago but is good to go for tomorrow’s dress. 2 concerts this weekend.

80 singers.

[Posaunus]

Principal trombone (I play 2nd) absent from tonight’s rehearsal. Says he’s good to go for tomorrow’s dress.
2 concerts this weekend.

80 singers.

Good luck!

[greenjambone]

Hope you're feeling better now!

I had it in October of that first year, then got my vaccine and boosters, then caught COVID again this past December. Each time was at a gig. Our keyboard player and drummer also just had it in April.

The first time I was sick, it took a while to get my breath support back... pretty disconcerting.

[Posaunus]

Got my second (Pfizer) booster yesterday - just in time (I hope) to provide additional protection for a lengthy plane trip next week and another in June. We'll be N95/KN95-masked on the flights.

We may be done with this evil virus, but it isn't done with us!

[Bach5G]

Made it through a couple of rehearsals and 2 concerts. The prince attended the dress and the performances. He may be in technical compliance with RTW guidelines, depending on whether you view fatigue as a symptom. A few people not happy with the situation.

Got to play tuba mirum twice. I got my own bow at an orch concert, something new for me. Now laying low, keeping an eye out for symptoms.

[robcat2075]

In the US you are due some free at-home COVID tests

https://www.covid.gov/tests

Might be useful to have on hand and expedite discussion if your health insurance has some sort of telemedicine service they ask you to describe your illness.

[JohnL]

One group my wife and I play in is suffering through what is hopefully a small outbreak. In addition to the original infected individual, I know of two other members who have been sick. Tomorrow will be Day 10 after the initial exposure; my wife had "close contact" but has shown no symptoms and has been testing negative.

[Bach5G]

Self-isolating with mild symptoms. Unimpressed.

[spencercarran]

Self-isolating with mild symptoms. Unimpressed.

Dang, sorry to hear it got you. You're certainly right that the principal should've been more cautious.

FWIW the official CDC guidance (flawed as it is) recommends a return to work after 5 days only if you are able to wear a well-fitting mask, and not to go places where you are unable to wear a mask. Obviously it is impossible to wear a mask while performing on trombone, so it doesn't sound to me as though he was even in technical compliance with RTW guidelines.

[jorymil]

It's definitely starting to get worse here in the States. I just had two family members get it, and just finished up my 10 days of testing and masking after being exposed. Hopefully all goes well for you.

FWIW, there are "musicians' masks": https://www.hickeys.com/search/products/sku129357.php

And it's possible to sound badass while wearing one:

[Bach5G]

I see how this could take a turn and get real serious, real fast.

[Matt K]

I have one of those masks. I’m sure it’s better than nothing but probably not by any meaningful amount.

[robcat2075]

And if COVID weren't enough...

More than 100 confirmed or suspected cases of monkeypox have been reported in 12 countries, including the US

"It's not as contagious as Covid. So I am confident we're going to be able to keep our arms around it," Jha said. "But we'll track it very closely and use the tools we have to make sure we can continue to prevent further spread and take care of the people who get infected."

Health experts say close contact with an infected person is required to spread the monkeypox virus.
Infection can develop after exposure to "broken skin, mucous membranes, respiratory droplets, infected body fluids or even contact with contaminated linen," according to Neil Mabbott, personal chair in immunopathology at the veterinary school of the University of Edinburgh in Scotland.

"Not as contagious" but "respiratory droplets" is also how we're getting COVID.

Hmmm.

.

[jorymil]

And influenza. And the common cold. And a whole bunch of other things. This one's a long way still from Covid. The media is very good at amplifying, especially when the disease has a name like "monkeypox."

[robcat2075]

The media is very good at amplifying,

I recall that's what people were saying at the beginning of COVID.

Before it killed a lot of people, they were saying it must not be really dangerous if it hasn't killed a lot of people.

Just media hype!

[timothy42b]

I have it, woke up this weekend feeling really lousy and tested positive. This milder strain may just be like a bad flu but .......... a bad flu is pretty miserable.

I got on the Paxlovid right away and I do seem to be improving faster than my daughter did, who didn't get meds.

[hornado]

Hi, I'm new here. Looking for random things to post on to get my account fully functional.

I got sick the day before an annual volunteer orchestra concert I organize. I'm principal horn. It was such a major disappointment and I feel terrible for asking the third horn to take my place. I was relieved that the concert went off mostly without a hitch though. Just such awful timing.

[Cotboneman]

This thing is still with us, and it's not going away. I'm quadruple vaccinated, wear an N95 mask in public spaces, and still managed to get Covid ten days ago. I will say that the symptoms were relatively mild, but I nevertheless did have them, and the day after I tested positive I had zero energy. But it was all upper respiratory, with no breathing issues at all, so I am convinced it was the BA-5 variant. As of today's post I'm still testing positive (Day 10), but feel almost completely normal. I have an occasional sniffle, but that is the extent of it. I'll quarantine the entire 14 days, or until I test negative. Funny thing is, I was never unable to practice, with the exception of the one bad day.

Where did I get it? Who can tell? I attended my community orchestra rehearsal on the evening of Tuesday, September 6, and I was sneezing then. But my allergies had been flaring the previous weekend, so I thought nothing of it. The orchestra has a strict masking and spacing policy, so it was unlikely that I picked it up there. And no one else who was present that night has reported getting sick. I'm retired and live alone, so I have naturally not been around a large number of people at a job. I'm thankful that my experience was relatively mild, and hope we all remain vigilant. I'm also thankful that I had those shots and boosters. Ironically I was scheduled to receive the Omicron booster on the day I tested positive. I guess I won't need that for awhile now!

[robcat2075]

WaPo has article about study on long COVID


‘We are in trouble’: Study raises alarm about impacts of long covid

A new long-covid study based on the experiences of nearly 100,000 participants provides powerful evidence that many people do not fully recover months after being infected with the coronavirus.

The Scottish study found that between six and 18 months after infection, 1 in 20 people had not recovered and 42 percent reported partial recovery. There were some reassuring aspects to the results: People with asymptomatic infections are unlikely to suffer long-term effects, and vaccination appears to offer some protection from long covid.

42% with only partial recovery!

Between 7 million and 23 million Americans — including 1 million who can no longer work — are suffering from the long-term effects of infection with the virus, according to government estimates. Those numbers are expected to rise as covid becomes an endemic disease.

“It has always been the case that those who are sicker are more likely to have long-term sequelae (symptoms),” Putrino said. “What is frightening is that the mild cases by far outnumber the severe, so even a small percentage of mild cases going on to develop long-term sequelae is a massive public health concern.”

[Matt K]

The fatigue went away for me… I think… it’s hard to tell with a 2 y/o… after about 5 months. But I’ve still got a runny nose. Kid started school though so that’s also hard to say if it’s still from Covid or any one of the million viral infections he’s gotten in the last few months. And of course isolating for two years means I have essentially no immune system left as well so I’ve been sick basically since August with a few days in a row where I’m not Ill. Joys of parenthood…

[officermayo]

Interesting... I dont have enough knowledge to dispute the UK stats but I do know that anyone who dies of anything within a month of catching covid is recorded as death by covid so that includes all cancer patients, heart attacks, sepsis, dementia - you name it and thats not to mention the good old winter flu which seems to have entirely disapeared as a cause of death. Is that the same in the US? It just seems to my simple and largely naive brain that that might completely skew the real figures as many of these people would have, sadly, died anyway... just thinking out loud

A close friend is the administrator of a hospital system in another state. He told me the CDC sent memos directing that that any patient who has Covid at death (no matter what the actual cause of death) were to be listed as dying from Covid. The same day he spoke to me there was a murder victim and a auto crash patient who died from their injuries. Both were listed among the Covid deaths.

[timothy42b]

Here's the CDC memo - not sure it says what people think.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

[Matt K]

I dealt with death certificate data for a few years, and yeah, even before covid, it was, oftentimes, an approximation. We could tie the individual back to their health records where I worked, and sometimes we'd scratch our heads with the laundry list of things that a person had compared to the single item that may have been on the person's death certificate.

Oftentimes, someone dies from a constellation of things, not just a single line item. Even in cases of trauma like a gunshot wound or being run over or something, someone has worse odds of dying if they aren't in good health. Now that we have digital records it should theoretically be more easy to identify those issues, but lets say that someone would have survived an inpatient visit if they didn't have Covid... or diabetes etc. What actually killed them? How many things need to be listed on the death certificate to get a complete picture? What are actually just edge cases that we shouldn't worry about? It's something that seems pretty straightforward, but ends up being quite a bit more difficult to quantify when you actually start looking at the complete picture.

[robcat2075]

A close friend is the administrator of a hospital system in another state. He told me the CDC sent memos directing that that any patient who has Covid at death (no matter what the actual cause of death) were to be listed as dying from Covid. The same day he spoke to me there was a murder victim and a auto crash patient who died from their injuries. Both were listed among the Covid deaths.

I can't find any reporting on such a memo. Is there some? Can your friend produce that memo? It wouldn't be a secret document, not after it got sent to every hospital in the country.

Here is the actual CDC guidance on reporting causes of death:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/coding ... orting.htm

[BGuttman]

As Matt said, often the cause of death is a combination of things. Some ailments make you more susceptible to others. When old folks die it's often reported as "pneumonia". Pneumonia per se doesn't have to be fatal, but if your body is drained from chronic kidney disease, emphysema from smoking, or some other complication you become more sensitive to the pneumonia.

I just got my THIRD booster. This one is "bivalent" (as a chemist, bivalent has a different meaning for me) for the original strain and the Omicron strain. Already had a mild case of COVID so I don't even know if what I had is gone. Never felt sick while I tested positive and don't feel any different now. Although I've definitely lost a step or three from what I could do 10 years ago.

[Posaunus]

Interesting... I dont have enough knowledge to dispute the UK stats but I do know that anyone who dies of anything within a month of catching covid is recorded as death by covid so that includes all cancer patients, heart attacks, sepsis, dementia - you name it and thats not to mention the good old winter flu which seems to have entirely disapeared as a cause of death. Is that the same in the US? It just seems to my simple and largely naive brain that that might completely skew the real figures as many of these people would have, sadly, died anyway... just thinking out loud

A close friend is the administrator of a hospital system in another state. He told me the CDC sent memos directing that that any patient who has Covid at death (no matter what the actual cause of death) were to be listed as dying from Covid. The same day he spoke to me there was a murder victim and a auto crash patient who died from their injuries. Both were listed among the Covid deaths.

These stories appear to be mostly "fake news." Both referenced CDC guidelines in this thread (by timothy42b and Robcat2075) provide no such "direction." Certainly not the practice at our local hospitals. Is there another secret memo?

[timothy42b]

Some interesting similarities between long covid and chronic fatigue syndrome.

For example, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-32507-6

[Matt K]

I can easily see how that memo could be interpreted that way. It isn’t secret, it’s the one linked there. And again, it’s also reasonable to have someone come in from a car accident have Covid listed on the death certificate just as it’s also quite a bit silly. Turns out dying is a lot easier than quantifying the reason for the death.

[officermayo]

A close friend is the administrator of a hospital system in another state. He told me the CDC sent memos directing that that any patient who has Covid at death (no matter what the actual cause of death) were to be listed as dying from Covid. The same day he spoke to me there was a murder victim and a auto crash patient who died from their injuries. Both were listed among the Covid deaths.

These stories appear to be mostly "fake news." Both referenced CDC guidelines in this thread (by timothy42b and Robcat2075) provide no such "direction." Certainly not the practice at our local hospitals. Is there another secret memo?

No, not fake. Came from a hospital CEO with a PhD in pandemic policies.
Also note that such directives are not part of "official policy".

[officermayo]

A close friend is the administrator of a hospital system in another state. He told me the CDC sent memos directing that that any patient who has Covid at death (no matter what the actual cause of death) were to be listed as dying from Covid. The same day he spoke to me there was a murder victim and a auto crash patient who died from their injuries. Both were listed among the Covid deaths.

I can't find any reporting on such a memo. Is there some? Can your friend produce that memo? It wouldn't be a secret document, not after it got sent to every hospital in the country.

Here is the actual CDC guidance on reporting causes of death:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/coding ... orting.htm

Doubt me all you want. I know I'm telling the truth.

[Matt K]

As someone who has done research utilizing those data, that would be a good thing regardless if it’s true or not. As I noted, sometimes the omissions from such certificates was puzzling. And it’s very easy to filter extraneous info out but obviously not possible to put it in if it isn’t on the certificate.

If the implication is that the numbers of deaths would be inflated, that’s possibly true but that’s also true of any single factor study and Covid shouldn’t be treated differently. We could look at any number of diseases that are present at point of death and paint a very different picture for each of them (obesity, diabetes, so on and so forth) such that it makes each individual disease look like it is worse than it is in terms of mortality.

But most studies I was involved with were multivariate. (If we know you have some assortment of comorbidities and certain physical characteristics can we predict X where X is mortality, another comorbidity, etc). So looking at Death certificates in this case, you’d statistically look at the constellation of problems that someone had to determine morbidity.

In other words, if someone just came in from a car crash and had no comorbidities is different from someone who had a car crash and the flu who is, in turn, different from someone who was in a car crash and had The flu and diabetes etc etc. In turn, this study might influence how the medical profession treats someone when they come in with a car accident.

So seems like good policy to me so that researchers can get complete data on the complete picture of the person who passed. But like any other data, it can be tortured and abused in such a way it paints a picture that is unrepresentative of reality. Due diligence is always necessary.

[spencercarran]

Interesting... I dont have enough knowledge to dispute the UK stats but I do know that anyone who dies of anything within a month of catching covid is recorded as death by covid so that includes all cancer patients, heart attacks, sepsis, dementia - you name it and thats not to mention the good old winter flu which seems to have entirely disapeared as a cause of death. Is that the same in the US? It just seems to my simple and largely naive brain that that might completely skew the real figures as many of these people would have, sadly, died anyway... just thinking out loud

A close friend is the administrator of a hospital system in another state. He told me the CDC sent memos directing that that any patient who has Covid at death (no matter what the actual cause of death) were to be listed as dying from Covid. The same day he spoke to me there was a murder victim and a auto crash patient who died from their injuries. Both were listed among the Covid deaths.

Yeah well my uncle who works at Nintendo says that's not true

[officermayo]

Yeah well my uncle who works at Nintendo says that's not true

Don't know if this is common knowledge today, but it's possible to disagree with someone without being a jerk.

[Posaunus]

So is the message here that Covid isn't real; that long Covid is a myth; that some people aren't really getting sick from this devious virus; that not very many folks are actually dying from the consequences, complications, and sequelae of Covid; that we shouldn't be taking any precautions like wearing masks or getting vaccinated? I'm confused.

[spencercarran]

Yeah well my uncle who works at Nintendo says that's not true

Don't know if this is common knowledge today, but it's possible to disagree with someone without being a jerk.

Why should I feign respect for obvious lies? I met you with the derision you earned.

[officermayo]

I cannot believe that I'm being derided for this.

I could understand if someone simply disagreed, but to call me a liar?
The information I imparted came from a degreed medical professional I've known for 50 years who has no reason to lie to me. Disagree all you want, but to cast aspersions my way is just kneejerk political smack talk. As I said before I know what I've said is the truth and I bid the same to you as I do the horse you rode in on.

[BGuttman]

So is the message here that Covid isn't real; that long Covid is a myth; that some people aren't really getting sick from this devious virus; that not very many folks are actually dying from the consequences, complications, and sequelae of Covid; that we shouldn't be taking any precautions like wearing masks or getting vaccinated? I'm confused.

Though there are some doubters, COVID is real. The latest version is a lot less deadly than the earlier ones were; but also much easier to catch.

Long COVID was identified a year or so ago when people who had COVID didn't seem to recover fully. In fact, a friend of mine died from Long COVID.

Recently it was discovered that there are a lot of similarities between Long COVID and Chronic Fatigue Syndrome. From what I gather they haven't determined that CFS is Long COVID but there are possibly some identical mechanisms that can be addressed. I don't think there is a cure for CFS either. Maybe this observation will find a cure for both.

[hyperbolica]

So is the message here that Covid isn't real; that long Covid is a myth; that some people aren't really getting sick from this devious virus; that not very many folks are actually dying from the consequences, complications, and sequelae of Covid; that we shouldn't be taking any precautions like wearing masks or getting vaccinated? I'm confused.

No, the message here is that you have to pay attention to the source of statistics. People of any persuasion can use them to forward any agenda.

Also, it's possible for an answer to be complicated, but that's another thing that has been lost in the last couple of decades. A true answer to any technical question is almost always more complex than black or white.

I totally believe that government agencies may be trying to do the right thing (show that death can have multiple contributing factors), but the result is that some people are using the statistics to increase the alarm that more people are dying from a specific cause. Plus, how the reported results are presented or quoted can be problematic even if the original data is perfect.

In case there's any confusion, I'm calling both sides liars and cheats. We should approach all statistics with skepticism. Unless you were there for the whole process and know the situation intimately, you don't really have any way of being positive that the results are being biased by this story or that story or interpreted with a particular view in mind. You're not going to prove anything with statistics, just show another potentially prejudiced data set.

Statistics generally lack context. There is a set of extenuating circumstances behind every hashmark on a survey. I can't attest to the "truth" behind any set of statistics, all I know is my own experience. Some people mock personal stories, but these are the context that you never see with numbers. Any set of data can be used to foist lies on the gullible in the name of unquestionable truth.

Personally, I have taken all shots and boosters, and I avoid groups of people. Unless it's music related, then I take my chances. I haven't had covid (yet) and I want to avoid it, although I know many people who have had it and even died from it (early on). I have friends that are way more careful than I am, but also some friends who are deniers. I talked to a guy who hasn't been out to eat in over 2 years. I think that's crazy. You'd go insane by isolating that much. But then I work at home and only go out for an occasional date night, rehearsals/gigs, or shopping. And I never wear a mask unless I go into a medical facility that requires it. I don't know what label you want to pin on that, but to me, it's a balanced response. Being sensible and avoiding unnecessary risk when I can, but also not allowing paranoia to make me crazy and keep me from living my life. My "not eating out" friend has several health issues that I don't have, and covid might well be a death sentence for him. My anti-vax friend has had the illness, luckily a mild case. Both of their decisions make sense from their point of view, but I don't agree with either.

Most people I know aren't at either extreme. They're in the middle. Which is where I am. I think people at both ends are crazy. So far I'm not dead from any combination of factors, and I'm not crazy from isolation. Just be careful whose BS you listen to. Make up your own mind. And again incase it isn't clear, I believe @officermayo's story, and I think it backs up what I'm saying - don't believe every set of numbers being claimed as irrefutable proof of anything.

[brumpone]

My simple right-pondian brain is struggling to understand the controversy around the statistics. In BBC reporting on UK COVID fatalities, every time the number was mentioned the news anchor would cite the clarification that the figure referred to ‘people who died for any reason who had tested positive for COVID in the last 28 days’. Some people dying with but not from COVID being included in the UK figures was right there in the open, but my very inexpert guess would be that case counts in the UK where COVID was not a factor would be comparatively low, or in other words the official figures are probably a slight overestimate, but not by much.

The policies (official and unofficial), circumstances and facts in other countries clearly vary.


My wife had COVID in February. We’ve no idea how I didn’t catch it, as I normally get everything going, but she was ill for 3 weeks. Even when the viral infection had cleared up she had some respiratory difficulty for nearly 3 months. The NHS walk-in centre described it as Long COVID, although it does not seem to resemble the long term debilitating effects that others reporting Long COVID suffer.

[elmsandr]

Unfortunately, the statistics compiled in the US were much more diffused and not centrally standardized, controlled or dictated.

For amusement, listen to this for a story of some journalists who were dismayed to discover that their combing of local and state data ended up being what the administration was reporting out as the ‘official’ counts. https://99percentinvisible.org/episode ... e-of-data/

Cheers,
Andy